There’s Something Happening Here: A Different Forecast for 2035
The forecast I’m sharing here for a decade hence–2035–isn’t better or worse than others’ forecasts, but it’s different from others both in analysis and conclusions.
There’s something happening here is the first line in the song For What It’s Worth (1966) by the Buffalo Springfield, followed by “what it is ain’t exactly clear,” two lines that capture this moment in history: there are many forecasts about the next ten years, and they cover a wide spectrum, but what’s actually happening is far from clear.
Many forecasters are “talking their book,” meaning proponents of an investment approach are predicting the supremacy of their strategy to serve their own self-interest.
Others are based on conventional ideological beliefs or recency bias, projecting a continuation of current trajectories.
My forecast is neither an investment strategy nor a projection of current trends, as where those trajectories will actually go by 2035 is unclear.
I am confident that my forecast is based on realities that are invisible to the mainstream while being obvious to those unswayed by conventions.
Ok, Smarty-Pants, you’ve been predicting doom since 2012 (my book “Why Things Are Falling Apart”) and yet here we are 13 years later with fantastic stock market gains and a future so bright we have to wear shades. So why should we pay attention to you now?
Let’s go over my core points and then you decide if they’re consequential or not in the near-term.
CHS NOTE: I rarely paywall an essay, and I do so here not as a ploy to get more paid subscribers–whatever audience I have is always enough in my view, though of course we’d all appreciate a million subscribers–but to test these ideas on a limited audience. I’ve been doing this for 20 years, and yes, it takes time and effort and yes, it’s unpaid if no one subscribes, but that’s the deal. Thank you for your readership and understanding.