The 12-Day War Was Only Round 1: What Could Come Next in the War on Iran

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran—an assault that would later become known as the 12-Day War.

It began with an attempted decapitation strike aimed at the Iranian leadership. Dozens of senior generals and officials were killed.

The US and Israel hoped this would trigger the collapse of the Iranian government. It wasn’t an unrealistic expectation—such a blow could have toppled a government in many other countries.

But Iran’s government didn’t collapse. It regained its footing and launched a devastating counterattack on Israeli targets using ballistic and hypersonic missiles, overwhelming Israeli defenses. The scale of Iran’s response forced both Israel and the US to seek a ceasefire.

Iran reportedly refused the initial ceasefire offer. Why would they agree, after all, when they had the momentum? It wasn’t until Trump was forced to offer concessions that Iran agreed to stop fighting.

One key concession: allowing Iran to sell oil to China.

China is Iran’s top oil customer, importing over 1 million barrels per day—roughly 14% of China’s total oil imports.

Here’s what Trump tweeted shortly after the ceasefire went into effect:

It baffled observers, as allowing Iran to sell oil to China effectively unraveled years of sanctions. It highlighted the scale of concessions the US had to make to persuade Iran to stop fighting.

Further, rather than weakening the Iranian government, Round 1 triggered a surge in nationalist sentiment and unified the country around the need to defend itself from foreign aggression—exactly the opposite outcome the US and Israel had hoped for.

The extent of the damage to Iran’s nuclear program remains unclear. President Trump claimed to have “obliterated” it, but that’s far from certain. What is clear is that Iran retains the technical know-how and the capacity to rebuild whatever was lost. The only question is how quickly.

In response to US strikes on its nuclear facilities, Iran launched a ballistic missile attack on the massive US airbase in Qatar, destroying a key radar installation. The US sought to keep the damage out of public view to de-escalate the situation.

In short, although Iran suffered significant damage and losses, it did not lose Round 1 of this confrontation. But the war is far from over.

The nuclear issue is unresolved. That’s why the 12-Day War was only Round 1. Round 2 is almost certain—and it could be far larger and far more devastating.

And now, after an attempted regime change, there is virtually no chance Iran’s government will willingly give up its nuclear ambitions. That leaves only one path for the US and Israel to fully eliminate Iran’s nuclear capability: a full-scale war to overthrow the regime.

Any new nuclear deal, if negotiated, would likely be short-lived. Why? Because a lasting agreement would only strengthen Iran—which, in turn, bolsters Russia and China—undermining US power in the global order.

The real issue here is regime change. The nuclear program is just the pretext. Why? Because even if Iran agreed to a new nuclear deal, the US and Israel would still view the Iranian government as an intolerable geopolitical threat.

That’s why I believe the status quo is untenable. The outcome is binary:

Outcome #1: The US and Israel succeed in overthrowing Iran’s government, paving the way to destabilize Russia and China.

Outcome #2: Iran’s government remains in power, helping to consolidate Russian and Chinese influence in the multipolar world—while the US suffers a major geopolitical downgrade, much like the British Empire after World Wars 1 and 2.

The outcome of the ongoing war against Iran will be pivotal to the broader result of World War 3—and to the future of the world order.

It’s highly unlikely the US will simply stand by. Doing nothing would be the equivalent of accepting its own decline in a multipolar world.

Iran could make a dash for the bomb. If successful, it would solidify the current government, deter US and Israeli efforts at regime change, and mark a major retreat of US geopolitical influence.

In my view, the base case scenario is that the US will launch a full-scale war against Iran—but it will be ill-fated. The effort will likely fail to achieve regime change, and as a result, US global power will continue to recede within the emerging multipolar world order.

Faced with the bleak prospects of a successful invasion, the US (or Israel) could resort to using nuclear weapons. But that would almost certainly trigger a chain reaction that could threaten life on Earth. While this remains a possibility, it is not—at least in my view—the base case scenario.

That’s why I believe there’s a strong chance we’ll see a full-scale conventional war—one that will be devastating for all sides. It’s a war the US is unlikely to win, but it may still take the risk to avoid the greater threat of losing its global dominance. And Israel may act unilaterally, regardless of what the US does.

Such a war would be catastrophic—and could mark the end of the US as the world’s leading power.

The situation is fluid, volatile, and impossible to predict with precision.

But when you step back and look at the full picture, I believe there’s a real chance the US will not succeed in overthrowing Iran’s government.

The larger implication? We are likely witnessing the end of US global dominance, much like the fall of the British Empire in the wake of the world wars.

Many people are unprepared for such a historic shift. But when you view the Big Picture, this is where the world appears to be headed.

Changes in the world order are rare, history-defining events—with massive implications, both geopolitical and financial.

We are living through one of those rare moments right now.

That’s why it’s critical to tune out the noise, cut through the propaganda, and understand the true geopolitical landscape.

History is shifting before our eyes. The 12-Day War was only the opening act in a much larger confrontation—one that could reshape the global order, redraw alliances, and trigger the most dangerous financial crisis in a century. Most people will be blindsided by what comes next. But you don’t have to be.

That’s why I’ve prepared a special report: The Most Dangerous Economic Crisis in 100 Years… and the Top 3 Strategies You Need Right Now. It reveals the forces driving this seismic change, the risks that threaten your money and freedom, and the practical steps you can take today to protect yourself.

Click here to get your free copy now—and make sure you’re ready for what comes next.

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