12 Contexts for an Era of Global Conflict
Understanding any complex system or situation begins by identifying contexts that illuminate rather than obscure, misdirect or confuse. I find these 12 contexts helpful in making sense of the current era of global conflicts.
1. Oil and soil. Oil and soil are the foundations of civilization. Both are being depleted. The technologies of recovering more oil have advanced, but there is no guarantee that these advances will continue. Diminishing returns could take hold.
The nutrient content of our food has been declining for decades. Meat is only as nutritious as the feed eaten by the livestock. The financial-economic mindset focuses solely on quantity of food produced, not the quality as measured by what counts: nutrient content.
Supplements / pills are not a replacement for micro-nutrients in real food; numerous studies have found that supplements have few if any discernable effects. The uptake of micro-nutrients depends on many factors, including a healthy, diverse microbiome and healthy, diverse diet of real food.
Soil is alive. It can’t be restored by applying chemical fertilizers. It takes long-term composting with organic materials to restore micro-nutrients and micro-organisms.
Without ample, affordable food and hydrocarbon energy, civilization in its current configuration goes away.
2. The price of oil and food is set on the margins. A 10% drop in the supply of oil doesn’t cause a 10% rise in the price; it causes a 50%+ rise in the price. A 25% decline in supply can trigger a 300% rise in price.
3. Shocks that destabilize base assumptions about the global status quo’s costs and consequences are becoming more numerous.
4. There are no conventional political or financial “saves” for these shocks, which are not even recognized as destabilizing factors until after the fact.
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