Redrawing Boundaries in a Multipolar World: A New Phase of World War 3

Determining the precise boundaries of various spheres of influence in a multipolar world—and formalizing them into an agreement—will be a complex and prolonged process.

It won’t happen overnight.

Until a formal agreement is reached among the world’s major powers—much like the Congress of Vienna after the Napoleonic Wars, the Treaty of Versailles following World War 1, and the Yalta Conference at the close of World War 2—World War 3 will continue.

While a direct kinetic war between the US, Russia, and China cannot be entirely ruled out, it remains an unlikely scenario.

Instead, we are likely to see a continued mix of proxy wars, economic conflicts, financial warfare, cyber attacks, biological warfare, deniable sabotage, and information warfare as these powers compete to expand their spheres of influence—until an agreement is reached to formally end World War 3.

Below is a geopolitical map of the emerging multipolar world as I see it today—click the image to enlarge. I expect the colors and borders to change dramatically in the near future.

Defining the New Spheres of Influence

Some boundaries are relatively clear. The Western Hemisphere will undoubtedly remain under US influence. Russia’s sphere will include Eastern Europe and parts of Central Asia, while China’s will center on East Asia.

However, where exactly the lines will be drawn within these zones remains a significant question.

Take East Asia, for example.

Taiwan is almost sure to be reunited with China in some form. The US cannot prevent this, and Washington will likely acknowledge Taiwan as part of China’s sphere of influence.

But what about South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines?

The US is unlikely to abandon its alliances with them completely.

Can China accept South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines remaining US allies? If not, what actions will Beijing take?

For World War 3 to conclude, the US and China must agree on the boundaries of their respective spheres of influence in East Asia—but that doesn’t seem imminent. The competition between Washington and Beijing in East Asia (and beyond) is set to continue.

The Middle East’s Role in the Emerging World Order

The Middle East presents one of the biggest uncertainties in the emerging multipolar world.

Where will the new boundaries be drawn?

The region is further complicated by the presence of powerful regional players like Turkey, Israel, and Iran, all of whom have their own interests.

The US, Russia, and China will not only need to define their roles in the Middle East but so will these regional actors. There’s no sign of a resolution anytime soon. The region remains volatile, and the potential for a regional conflict escalating into a global confrontation remains a real possibility.

A key question is Iran’s role in the multipolar world order—and whether the US and Israel will accept it.

What About Europe?

While it seems clear that Eastern Europe will fall into Russia’s sphere, the fate of Western and Central Europe remains uncertain.

As part of Trump’s foreign policy shift, it appears the US government has effectively ended the war in Ukraine, all but ensuring Russia’s anticipated victory.

Losing the Ukraine war will be a bitter pill for supporters of the unipolar world order. Yet, it was always inevitable they would face a harsh reality check after wagering so much blood, treasure, and credibility on a conflict they were never positioned to win.

Russia’s victory in Ukraine will carry enormous downstream consequences—particularly for Europe and NATO.

The existential question for Western Europe is: What will happen to NATO?

• Will it remain unchanged?
• Will it weaken?
• Will it dissolve altogether?

I believe there’s a strong likelihood that NATO is either headed for a major restructuring or could even be dissolved entirely. The political will in the US to continue subsidizing Western Europe’s security has significantly diminished.

Western European nations are unlikely to welcome these shifts, but their reliance on US security through NATO for decades has left them vulnerable.

Will they move away from EU integration and back toward national sovereignty? If so, what are the geopolitical consequences?

Africa and Regional Powers

The role of Africa in a multipolar world remains undefined.

The US, China, and Russia all have vested interests in the continent, but the boundaries of their respective influences are unclear.

Africa could become a major theater for economic, financial, and even military competition between these global powers.

Major regional players like Brazil, India, and Pakistan will need to secure their place in the multipolar world without provoking the US, Russia, or China.

Redrawing Borders

History shows that borders are often redrawn when global power structures shift.

This could happen across Africa, the Middle East, Europe, and East Asia—and possibly even in the Western Hemisphere.

Trump has made no secret of his desire to incorporate Canada, Greenland, and Panama into the US. His comments should be understood within the broader context of the emerging multipolar world.

Here’s the bottom line.

A lot remains unresolved before we can say World War 3 is over.

Key unresolved geopolitical flashpoints in the transition to a multipolar world include:

• The Middle East
• Western and Central Europe
• Africa
• South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines
• Brazil, India, Pakistan, and other regional powers

Until a formal agreement is reached to define these boundaries—just as past world conflicts were settled—World War 3 will persist, bringing massive global consequences.

Global Power Is Shifting—So Is the Financial Landscape

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