THE IRANIUM REACTION: Israeli Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities Is Imminent
Israel is preparing its attack on Iran now, according to an article in The Sun (admittedly not the most reliable source of info, but consider all the facts, as I will here, and it seems almost inevitably true). Now that Iran’s proxies around Israel are weakened to the point of being nearly destroyed, Israel believes Iran is more desperate than ever to attain nuclear weapons as their last remaining strength again Israel, which the religious government of Iran has long sworn it will destroy.
In fact, Israel’s 480+ strikes on Syrian weapon sites are likely part of the initial preparation, seizing the opportunity to make certain Iran’s key ally is completely disabled so that any Iranian-linked operators inside Syria cannot use those facilities to retaliate when Israel does bombard Iran. Estimates claim Israel has already wiped out 85% of Syria’s anti-aircraft systems and that Iranian weapon facilities inside Syria have been obliterated, while Israel’s attacks continue unabated. That’s important, not just to avoid retaliation, but because Israel may intend to fly over Syria’s newly available air space in any attack it makes on Iran, which is just another advantage Israel has in acting before a UN-recognized Syrian government can be set up that can deny that access. (Of course, it will still need Iraq’s or Turkey’s permission for use of their airspace to complete a direct route from Israel to Iran through Syria. Iraq’s permission, however, might not be that hard to get since it has long seen Iran as its arch enemy, even deploying chemical weapons against it.)
With Syria having been Iran’s closest and strongest ally within the region, that is one major obstacle taken out of the way for Israel, making no time like the present if Israel ever intends to make good on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise many times over that Iran will never get a nuclear weapon. Iran has never looked so isolated.
There is likely more to this than protecting Israel from whatever groups gain ascendancy in the power struggle within in Syria or even just from whatever group might gain access to a single weapons site it could use against Israel for its own religious reasons. At the same time, getting the remainder of those weapon facilities, especially the Iranian ones, wiped out is likely part of the prep Israel would want to accomplish before directly attacking Iran since they are far more proximal to Israel than weaponry inside of Iran and since Iran had a large presence in Syria that Israel wants to make sure is eradicated.
Israel is certain Iran is racing as quickly as it can to get its nuclear materials into weapons it can use against Israel while it still has a tiny window to do so, which means Israel is likely at this point to make that window as tiny as it can.
Netanyahu firmly believes Iran is still trying to create nuclear weapons to use against Israel. Recently, he told the world without being specific, that some kind of day of reckoning was coming very soon for Iran, indicating its regime would not last long.
At the same time, incoming US President Donald Trump has made it clear he will be ramping up sanctions on Iran. He is also reportedly already weighing military options:
The US has not confirmed it will join Israel’s anti-nuclear mission, but incoming President Trump is said to be “weighing options” to buckle Iran’s nuclear project – and airstrikes are on the table.
This would mark a step-up from the US, which has long held a policy of avoiding direct military action against Iran.
Trump and Israeli prime minister Netanyahu have spoken since the American’s sweeping election victory, and Trump has made clear he wants to avoid an Iranian “breakout” during his presidency.
Even outgoing President Biden hasn’t done anything to scale back Israel’s attacks within Syria now that Assad is gone, as it has somewhat done with attacks within Gaza and Lebanon, and Biden is likely less worried about Iran’s response to an attack on its nuclear facilities now that Iran’s most active allies, including Syria, have been devastated.
In short, things have never looked so favorable for an attack by Israel on Iran’s nuclear facilities, especially with Trump taking over the office of US President in just a little more than a month. Netanyahu barely even has to worry about what the Biden administration would think of such an attack if the attack were made before then because they’re already packing their bags. That’s not to say they’d be silent, but Netanyahu now knows with certainty that it has a much stronger ally coming into office five weeks from now than what it had in Biden—someone Israel heralds as a champion for Zion.
The Russian reaction
Iran’s strongest of all allies, Russia, also has its hands full of Ukraine right now. While that doesn’t leave it unable to aid Iran, Russia’s economy is stretched thin because of its invasion, and the stretch marks are starting to look like tears. So, its assistance to Iran is likely to be more muted than it would have been at any other time.
That doesn’t mean its involvement is not to be feared, but just that this is, in that respect, also the best window Israel is likely to ever get if it is going to take out all of Iran’s nuclear facilities (many built and somewhat operated by Russia, which has a stake in them). Russia’s response has always been a part of US concern over taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities, but with the US trying to weaken Russia, it may also be thinking better now than any other time.
That said, Russia is, in today’s news, shown to be making massive moves of mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of sending nuclear warheads. Some are speculating this is to carry out its threat against the West for allowing Ukraine to use higher-grade missiles like ATACMS to strike inside Russia. Launcher trucks have come out of hiding and are right now traversing the snowy roads of Siberia and other parts of the nation in major preparation for something—maybe just a show of force to steer the West away from allowing Ukraine more use of such higher-power missiles, maybe something more.
Since ICBMs would not be necessary for any kind of attack on Ukraine, the move is clearly aimed at the West, whether the missiles actually become aimed at the West or are just being moved like another shot over the bow. Russia’s only use right now for such missiles would be an attack on NATO nations, and its spokespeople have said retaliation for the ATACMs and similar missiles is something Russia considers its legitimate right because the West was involved, according to Russia, not just in supplying the weapons, but also in targeting Russia with its satellites.
Russia, in fact, used the words “strike back” against the West when talking about its response to the Western missiles—the word “back” making it clear they see this as the West having first attacked them. It may be less likely, however, that Russia would use its ICBMs to respond against an attack on Iranian nuclear facilities when it has much greater concerns at stake than what happens to Iran if an attack is carried out by Israel.
And that’s the key here: At this point, Israel could probably handle an attack on Iran entirely on its own. It might not need US help. What Russia does with its nukes is more likely to be based on what is happening with the West and Ukraine, not based on what Israel does to Russia’s ally Iran. Russia has made many nuclear threats against the West for the past three years and none against Israel.
Russia has stated no intentions publicly for the missiles.
According to US News, Russia has also just issued a warning to its citizens to stay out of Western nations—well, the NATO ones. Ostensibly, the reason is that the the US is hunting down Russians in order to “wrongfully imprison” them now that relations are the worst they’ve been since the Cold War. You can decide if you believe that is the sole reason or not. It is the sole reason given, but nations often issue such warnings to their own citizens just before attacking other countries.
Of course, Russia may be dressing a warning like this to not look like a wartime warning, precisely so the West will figure that it is a wartime warning to its citizens just to leverage nuclear fears. After all, Russia wouldn’t be obvious that such a warning, if it were real, was precedent to an attack, and Putin well knows the art of selling a lie with misleading packaging/subterfuge, having been the Soviet Union’s head over European disinformation for years during his earlier incarnation.
Still, there was a hint that wasn’t all that veiled:
“In the context of the increasing confrontation in Russian-American relations, which are teetering on the verge of rupture due to the fault of Washington, trips to the United States of America privately or out of official necessity are fraught with serious risks,” Maria Zakharova, a spokeswoman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, told a news briefing….
“We urge you to continue to refrain from trips to the United States of America and its allied satellite states, including, first of all, Canada and, with a few exceptions, European Union countries, during these holidays,” she said.
Those exceptions would be the few European nations that are not NATO allies.
Yet, ostensibly, the reason was this:
“Our citizens have become the subject of hunting by American authorities and US special services,” Zakharova said without elaborating.
Nuclear conclusion
In all respects, the time has never looked more like “now” for Israel to carry out its threats against Iran if it is ever going to. Israel will always have reasons to be concerned about the repercussions of such an attack, but it is never likely to have fewer reasons than it does today, especially with the strongly pro-Israel Trump regime about to own all parts of the US government—the White House, Congress, and the Supreme Court.
Israel is always stating Iran is only weeks away from having a nuclear weapon—a claim that has gotten a little old since Netanyahu held out his picture of a cartoon bomb, used like a thermometer to show the bomb was 90% of the way to completion … over a decade ago.
With that claim looking a little weathered after years of never coming true but Israel’s concern as strong as ever, and with Iran looking more isolated than ever, no longer having Israel ringed by effective allies, and with Israel concerned that this is driving Iran to now put every resource it has into finishing up its nuclear development, and with its heralded champion, Trump, coming into power, the time has never looked more like “now if ever.”
Gabriel Noronha, who worked on Iran policy in Trump’s first government, said: “There is strong support [on Trump’s team] for Israel to take military action as they deem in their interests.”
Israel may wait until Trump takes the reins in order to show it is working with him, or it may act before then (even at Trump’s wish) so that Trump’s hands can be clean of whatever it does, knowing that makes his support easier than if he has to support it ahead of the attack and, thus, take blame for the attack happening with his approval or look weak for it happening in spite of his disapproval.
No one knows what kind of wider war such an attack will cause, but Iran is likely to respond with everything it has, knowing it is now backed into its own corner of “now or never.”
(This special-edition article will serve in the place of my Deeper Dive for the week.)